波森的这个战略规划很有远见卓识,但仍有片面之处

最新提问 3月 16 分类:吐槽 | 用户: 李安

本文主旨: 朝鲜问题, 美国, 中国

波森的这个战略规划很有远见卓识,但仍有片面之处。

日本这样的二战战败国拥核,必将成为鼓励核扩散的信号,此后的连锁反应是难以估量的,这样的连锁反应绝不会仅仅停留在舆论层面上,蠢蠢欲动的各大二等强国必将把拥核提上议事日程,全世界遍地核武绝不符合美国的大战略。

何况日本也非池中之物,一旦日本拥核,日美一主一从的合作关系必将从根本上出现松动。

届时,东亚问题的主动权或将从美国手中逃走。

换言之,遏制中国崛起是美国目前的一大要务,但其最为根本的目的在于“防止能够撼动美国霸权的势力出现”。

如果眼中只有遏制中国而不考虑更为长远的大战略,就犯了被目标置换效应所裹挟的错误。

遏制中国美国维系霸权的手段,而不是终极目的。

除此之外,美国与俄印的战略互信也是个问题,展开讨论是讨论不完的。

综上,我认为波森的战略规划至少在这个阶段不具有可行性。

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6 个回答

最新回答 3月 16 用户: 神秘的烧卖
按照该书的意思,简单来说,就是美国撤出亚太——1、中俄会因为失去压力,而让自身地缘矛盾显现(川普顺便拉一把俄国好分裂现有的中俄联盟)2、朝鲜会因为美国冷漠反应而只能继续发展核武,韩国会因为朝鲜发展出核武和受中美孤立而只好自行提升军事投入甚至也发展出核武,日本也会因为半岛两国发展出核武也发展出核武。

最终东亚四国全部拥核。

最终中国周边除了巴基斯坦外,还有印度、俄罗斯、朝鲜、韩国、日本5个国家拥核,这5个国家中有4个是和中国有矛盾的大经济体,还有个是和中国有矛盾的、失控而好战的小国,客观上就会遏制住中国

全世界还没哪个国家有这种待遇。

这原理有点像曹操除掉袁绍儿子们的策略,不管他们,把压力撤掉,他们的内部矛盾就自然爆发,开始内耗了。
最新回答 3月 16 用户: 赵忠
你这是胡扯,根本不明白以日本为代表的海权国家论,亨廷顿说过英国和日本是美国掌控欧洲大陆和东亚地绝佳支点,虽然日本和英国本身离大陆很近,但是天然的海权决定了日本和英国没有美国一样也不会和大陆国家走太近,比如英国和欧洲大陆,日本和中国,看起来英国和日本离美国都很近,但是海权思维中日本和英国与美国的关系和大陆是一样的,甚至更近,日本从来也没有臣服过中国,除了遣唐使学习文化以后,宋朝海盗,明朝的倭寇,清朝日本开始入侵中国附属的朝鲜半岛以及和中国无休止的海战,日本可有过什么时候臣服中国,英国更是如此,罗马帝国都没有征服英伦,相反美国的天然孤立属性以及和日本英国的海上贸易繁荣决定了这三个国家稳固的盟友关系来杜绝大陆国家对岛国的影响和威胁。
最新回答 3月 16 用户: NaP
我觉得这种想法有硬伤,完全是冷战思维。

为什么冷战思维看待当今的国际问题是错误的?因为客观条件不一样了,我也不说什么和平发展是当今时代的潮流这样的鬼话,大家看客观的情况,中美之间的贸易规模和联系是多少?比中国美国盟友之间关系更紧密吧,而当年美苏之间是几乎没有交流的,能比吗?中国不可能被一口吃掉,这是一个事实。

在这个事实之上,我倒是更愿意相信美国一定不会一门心思针对中国,这样来说代价太大,收益一般,。

美国最聪明的做法一定是遏制中国的同时剪盟友的羊毛。

也就是说美国是离岸平衡手,在亚太维持一个平衡,并不是想把中国逼上死路,如果中国倒了,那么兔死狗烹,美国也就没有在亚太存在的理由了
最新回答 3月 16 用户: 李安
波森的這個戰略規劃很有遠見卓識,但仍有片面之處。

日本這樣的二戰戰敗國擁核,必將成為鼓勵核擴散的信號,此後的連鎖反應是難以估量的,這樣的連鎖反應絕不會僅僅停留在輿論層面上,蠢蠢欲動的各大二等強國必將把擁核提上議事日程,全世界遍地核武絕不符合美國的大戰略。

何況日本也非池中之物,一旦日本擁核,日美一主一從的合作關系必將從根本上出現松動。

屆時,東亞問題的主動權或將從美國手中逃走。

換言之,遏制中國崛起是美國目前的一大要務,但其最為根本的目的在於“防止能夠撼動美國霸權的勢力出現”。

如果眼中只有遏制中國而不考慮更為長遠的大戰略,就犯了被目標置換效應所裹挾的錯誤。

遏制中國是美國維系霸權的手段,而不是終極目的。

除此之外,美國與俄印的戰略互信也是個問題,展開討論是討論不完的。

綜上,我認為波森的戰略規劃至少在這個階段不具有可行性。
最新回答 3月 16 用户: 神秘的烧卖
按照該書的意思,簡單來說,就是美國撤出亞太——1、中俄會因為失去壓力,而讓自身地緣矛盾顯現(川普順便拉一把俄國好分裂現有的中俄聯盟)2、朝鮮會因為美國冷漠反應而只能繼續發展核武,韓國會因為朝鮮發展出核武和受中美孤立而只好自行提升軍事投入甚至也發展出核武,日本也會因為半島兩國發展出核武也發展出核武。

最終東亞四國全部擁核。

最終中國周邊除了巴基斯坦外,還有印度、俄羅斯、朝鮮、韓國、日本5個國家擁核,這5個國家中有4個是和中國有矛盾的大經濟體,還有個是和中國有矛盾的、失控而好戰的小國,客觀上就會遏制住中國。

全世界還沒哪個國家有這種待遇。

這原理有點像曹操除掉袁紹兒子們的策略,不管他們,把壓力撤掉,他們的內部矛盾就自然爆發,開始內耗了。
最新回答 3月 16 用户: NaP
我覺得這種想法有硬傷,完全是冷戰思維。
為什麽冷戰思維看待當今的國際問題是錯誤的?因為客觀條件不一樣了,我也不說什麽和平發展是當今時代的潮流這樣的鬼話,大家看客觀的情況,中美之間的貿易規模和聯系是多少?比中國和美國盟友之間關系更緊密吧,而當年美蘇之間是幾乎沒有交流的,能比嗎?中國不可能被一口吃掉,這是一個事實。
在這個事實之上,我倒是更願意相信美國一定不會一門心思針對中國,這樣來說代價太大,收益一般,。
美國最聰明的做法一定是遏制中國的同時剪盟友的羊毛。
也就是說美國是離岸平衡手,在亞太維持一個平衡,並不是想把中國逼上死路,如果中國倒了,那麽兔死狗烹,美國也就沒有在亞太存在的理由了

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