答案:FOLD。我70-80%的概率会FOLD。这个牌本来从赔率来看是合适进去的

最新提问 3月 16 分类:吐槽 | 用户: 守望者

本文主旨: 金融, 趣味数学

答案:FOLD。

我70-80%的概率会FOLD。

这个牌本来从赔率来看是合适进去的。

但是也正因为我们进去之后,对后面三家庄位,大盲和小盲来说赔率更合适了,所以有可能他们也会进来。

而由于翻后整个格局从松弱转为松凶,在前面没有人再加注的情况下,后面三家加注的概率就大大增加了。

也就是说如果我们CALL进去的话可能后面会有人加注,不排除有人拿着KXH的牌进行60个BB以上的加注。

在这种情况下我们就会比较被动。

所以我不建议先加注,在平衡打法的情况下,有20-30%的概率我会CALL,但是在后面持续加注的情况下我会FOLD。

這裡我最关注的隐含反向赔率。

虽然我们是顺花双抽,但是首先我们就算抽到顺子也有可能输给更大的顺子。

而在有花面的情况下去抽顺更是一件很危险的事情。

在有可能后面被套池的情况下中了牌有可能就无法FOLD了,会全部打光,这样在880的较大买入的前期阶段就可能要打光是很危险的事情,所以我会谨慎从事。

而如果我们CALL了之后后面三家也CALL的话底池就达到了138.5BB,在还有两条街的情况下我们还有172.5BB 的后手,就算转牌有人OPEN半池,也要达到将近70BB,这样的话,我们河牌是很有可能在中牌的情况下被打光的。

所以考虑到后面的风险,我还是觉得这个位置还是选择70-80%的概率FOLD更好。

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3 个回答

最新回答 3月 16 用户: 巛贝枇杷膏
宇宙牌香香!

借壳回答。

答:跟注,卡顺听花看似美妙,牌力不弱,但卡到顺子未必是nuts,听到花也未必是nuts,不过考虑综合赔率,很值得call进去看转牌。

大小盲未做动作,存在变数,如果大小盲raise,前位玩家做激进反应,后面只能弃牌。

比赛刚开始没有复活机会没必要开始就搏命,后手足够后面可以慢慢打。

弃牌,同上的理由,多人底池,UTG玩家领打,大小盲动作未知,想看到的转牌未必都是nuts,如果想避免波动就选择弃牌,是最稳妥的选择,但也会损失隐藏价值。

(个人推荐选项)

allin,毕竟是一个没有胆量就没有产量的抉择,88、AQ、A8、QQ、KQ等各种花,如果想单车变摩托,只能搏一搏,毕竟还是有胜率的,只能自己安慰自己。

最新回答 3月 16 用户: 王波
call或者fold,翻牌松凶的面,轻易raise容易把自己打套池。

翻牌前3.5BB,大家call进来不排除有多个A的情况,因此翻牌后前位加注视为有A,如果raise容易被后位追打,fold的话损失太大,turn牌不中被推fold得会很难受,不fold损失可能会更大,虽然有42%的看起来较高的中牌概率,但是还要考虑到的是有58%的更高的不中概率。

因此我会先call,如果后位大raise我会fold。

考虑到前位已经有人raise,后位除了A挂大之外,一般不会起更大的raise,因此看到turn牌应该比较顺利,turn牌中花call着打,中顺没成花就狠打,什么都没中,面对大的加注就弃牌,小的加注接着call。

最新回答 4月 6 用户: 王波
call或者fold,翻牌松兇的面,輕易raise容易把自己打套池。

翻牌前3.5BB,大家call進來不排除有多個A的情況,因此翻牌後前位加註視為有A,如果raise容易被後位追打,fold的話損失太大,turn牌不中被推fold得會很難受,不fold損失可能會更大,雖然有42%的看起來較高的中牌概率,但是還要考慮到的是有58%的更高的不中概率。

因此我會先call,如果後位大raise我會fold。

考慮到前位已經有人raise,後位除了A掛大之外,一般不會起更大的raise,因此看到turn牌應該比較順利,turn牌中花call著打,中順沒成花就狠打,什麽都沒中,面對大的加註就棄牌,小的加註接著call。

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